Wells Fargo Championship Betting & DFS
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Course history believers, it’s just not your week.
For a tournament that’s been on the calendar for 20 years, the historical data sucks. Let’s take a look at the past handful of years, and why we have to throw a bunch of the data out. (“Normal Years” with “Good Historical Data” are in Bold.)
2022: Played at TPC Potomac instead as Quail Hollow was prepping for the President’s Cup
2021: Pretty normal, Rory got his third win here.
2020: COVID. Golf did come back faster than most sports, but not until mid-June, not tournament was held.
2019: Max Homa got his first tour win!
2018: Jason Day won, probably by putting well.
2017: Played Eagle Point GC in Wilmington due to PGA Championship hosting duties
..and the kicker to kill any older data: the course underwent a major renovation in the summer of 2016 by Tom Fazio. Big alterations were made to five of the holes and the course has played quite a bit tougher since, bringing down scoring.
To Top it all off: Quail Hollow is scheduled to host the 2025 PGA Championship, so you’d better bet we’re looking at an alternate site again soon.
Anyways, we’re here in Charlotte, doing the best we can. Let’s look at the course as it will be played this week via Ron Klos’ weekly preview article:
Quail Hollow
Measuring 7,538 yards, Quail Hollow is a tree-lined parkland par-71 layout. Similar to courses like Torrey Pines and Bay Hill, it presents the challenging combination of length and difficult scoring conditions. It is both the fourth longest and fourth toughest scoring course in the annual Tour rotation. It also has the sixth longest combined par 4s and par 5s on Tour.
Quail Hollow features tree-lined fairways, rolling terrain, strategically-placed water hazards, and firm undulating greens on approach. Though there are only 61 bunkers (11th fewest), they are well-utilized being laid out near landing zones along the fairways and often in the direct line of approach shots around the greens.
With a SubAir system below the greens, tournament officials gradually firm up the greens throughout the week so that by Sunday it becomes very tough to hold the green surface. This is another reason why long drivers of the ball have an advantage at Quail Hollow. More distance off the tee equates to higher-lofted and softer landing approach shots into firm tricky pin positions.
Before the 2016 renovation by Tom Fazio, Quail Hollow played nowhere near as tough as it does now. Between 2010 through 2015, the average score was 15-under with a birdie or better rate of 19%. In the three editions since the alterations, the average score has been 12-under with a birdie or better rate of only 17%. Basically, there are five scoring holes at Quail Hollow – the three par 5s and the two semi-driveable sub-350 yard par 4s. To have success on this course, players will need to birdie as many of those as possible and then hold on for dear life on the other 13 holes which all average over-par.
Betting Pick
A second straight week getting an easy one home with the Longhorn Beau Hossler easily cashing the newsletter pick via a T10 finish down in Mexico.
I hate Rickie Fowler, but sometimes you gotta hand it to a guy. He’s been playing good golf this season. As I laid out in the betting preview show this week, I can’t possibly stomach betting him to win here, but his top 20 price seems a bit short in my opinion and it’s one of my favorite looks.
His ball-striking numbers are close to being in the top 15% of the field at the moment. This time last year, they were very much middle of the pack. I think there’s still some value in trading on a guy who’s had a rough go of it the past few years.
See all of Andy and Ryan’s outright picks on our weekly betting preview
DFS Value
Keith Mitchell $7,800
Similar to Cam Young, this is a perfect course for Mitchell. Not only is he one of the most elite players off the tee, he has finished 3rd and 8th here in the last two events. He ranks first on Tour this year in Total Driving which measures both length and accuracy. If he can dial in his approach game, expect him to be in contention come Sunday.
Check out Ron’s Bermuda Putting Splits Breakdown
Weather
The weekend is a long way away, at least according to how I feel at the moment but… there are some decent chances for rain heading in that could impact this tourney.
As far as wave bumps, or day-one stuff, not really seeing much of a wave advantage with both weekday rounds looking fair, warm, and easy on the wind.
The Green Mile
I’m a sucker for stretches of courses with names, and it’s bonus points if it’s the closing holes like we have here this week. Usually, three-hole stretches with nicknames have a par-5 somewhere, but this week folks will just be struggling to find 11 good shots to close out the round.
As Ron mentions in his preview article, “The three holes have combined to play a staggering 0.27 strokes over par with a bogey-or-worse rate of 29.5% compared to a birdie rate of only 8.4%.”.
So, you get a nice, long dogleg with water surrounding the green, a par three with damn near a 200-yard carry (this played at 223 last year in the President’s Cup as #14, so they can make it even harder), and a closer with a stream running up the entirety of the left side and a long uphill approach into a well-protected green. Should be fun.
PGA Championship Peek
Only two weeks away from our next major! The tour will bounce back up from Texas next week to Rochester, New York to play the PGA Championship at Oak Hill CC for the fourth time.
Some Facts
Par 70, 7,390 yards. Just two par 5s, but they measure a combined 1,240 yards
Old as Hell: Club was founded 122 years ago
The East Course was built in the 1920s on a Donald Ross design but has been updated a handful of times, most recently in 2019 with some additional work done last year in preparation for this Major.
Hosted three U.S. Opens, three PGA Championships a Ryder Cup, and Amateur and Senior Championships over the past 75 years
Last time out won by Jason Dufner (2013) who also set a course record with a Friday 63
Rolling terrain, some sloped fairways with a creek running through parts of the course, often near the greens
Very tough finishing holes; could hope for some great drama Sunday afternoon
Signature Hole - #13 - 625 yard Par 5
A massive test with a creek in the middle that makes you decide how long your second shot will be, followed by an uphill shot into a green protected by a small hill and a half dozen bunkers.
Pictures of Tweets
I don’t want to make assumptions about a guy only to find out he was doing this to fight some terrible hereditary disease and I end up feeling like an a-hole but, Justin Thomas just doesn’t seem like he needs to go on a diet. (he does say he feels great all the time now, so maybe I need to do this too).
The sorta big news early this week centered around the unsung hero of the PGA Tour, the pro looper, with Joe LaCava bringing his broad shoulders and wealth of knowledge to a new golfer.
The move from caddying for Tiger Woods to a steady gig with Patrick Cantlay has many wondering….
After the PGA and LIV seemed to be getting along well enough at Augusta, I was worried that we would be short on drama this summer. Well, thank goodness for the USGA. They’ve come out and said “We won’t change the rules” to let Talor Gooch play after literally changing the rules so that he can’t.
Situation: Talor qualified for the Tour Championship last year (and didn’t play due to LIV). The criteria to get into the U.S. Open once read that qualifying for said Tour Championship got you in. It’s since been amended to “players who qualified and were eligible”. Excited to see this one play out.
Lastly, congrats Brooks and Jena. Maybe Koepka already knew about the pregnancy last month at Augusta and we can attribute his success to pre-nappy swag.
As always, be good, have fun, bet responsibly, and be sure to check out all the rest of our content each and every week.
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