Big week, so I wanted to get an early jump on things, especially seeing how we’re playing another tournament on a course that we haven’t seen/haven’t seen in a while. Just wanted to get the LACC preview out there as fast as possible since Ron did a really nice job this week. It’s even more extensive than usual for the major week.
So, let’s just get into it right away. I’ll send out a final thoughts edition tomorrow afternoon with quite a bit more betting content and picks than usual (it’s a major, folks).
Los Angeles Country Club
One of the encompassing themes of LACC is its size. With a half dozen back tees being added, the total yardage for the par-70 has been set at 7,421 yards. It ranks as the fifth-longest course on Tour and the third-longest course that has hosted a major over the last two years. The North Course can actually be extended to nearly 7,600 yards, but according to Chief Championships Officer for the USGA, John Bodenhamer, its length won’t necessarily favor the longest hitters.
“When I think of the North Course and how we might set it up, the player that does his homework and really studies the architecture will benefit,” Bodenhamer says. “There are strategic nuances there that, if you understand them, you have an advantage.” What Bodenhamer is referring to is how the course will actually play much shorter than the scorecard yardage because of the rollout that even the shorter hitters will get due to the firmness of the terrain and by playing the slopes at the proper angles.
Similar to the rolling terrain at Augusta National, another one of the striking features of LACC is the massive elevation changes. According to the United States Golf Association (USGA), there are 125 feet of elevation change across the property. These undulations, combined with barrancas, native vegetation, sandy waste areas, and rugged terrain provided a perfect template for Thomas’ naturalistic approach to design. While the fairways are framed by a variety of trees, it’s more of an open parkland look with excellent vistas to other holes and the Los Angeles skyline in the distance.
As for the topography, the land that the North Course lies on is a couple of large ridges bisected by a barranca. (Barrancas are small dormant riverbeds that look like a gully and are typically dry unless the area receives a significant amount of rain.) The course begins on a plateau and then transitions down into the valley for the second hole. For the remaining front nine, players are meandering back uphill to the plateau on the 9th hole. The back nine is played mostly on the high ground but also has some of the bigger ups and downs on the course. One thing is for sure, the movement through the layout offers great variety in elevation and direction.
The course is also full of eccentricities that are unusual for a U.S. Open course. Along with the ultra-wide fairways and atypical Bermuda rough, there are a multitude of landing spots for golf balls this week. Whether it’s having to hit from a sloped angle on the fairway, or from a short-grass collection area below the green, or from a sandy area of vegetation in a barranca, there is a wide variety of lies, and thus unpredictable outcomes that are rarely seen anywhere else on the PGA Tour schedule. There are also numerous blind shots, both off the tee and on approach that will only add to the unpredictability.
Even with some of the widest fairways in major championship history, LACC will not be a bombers’ paradise. Due to the aforementioned undulations and firmness of the property, it matters what happens when the ball hits the ground. Along with “barranca”, the words “firm and fast” will be spoken more times this week than you ever thought possible. “If we get conditions that we hope for, and the weather cooperates, and we get bounciness and firm and fast conditions, we think the best players in the world will rise to the top,” Bodenhamer says. “When the ball hits the ground here, it will go all over the place.”
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My Course fit model for the week:
Chose to lean heavily on Ball Striking and Around the Green play with some long iron proximity and scrambling out of the rough mixed in this week. Not sure I could build a model that didn’t spit out Scottie #1 (when you don’t weight any putting), but there are a few surprises in my top 10 this week.
Hideki is high, but I do have concerns about reports that he was struggling to hit it out of the rough
Finau and Day took money from me, I bet them both outright at 40 and 60 to 1, respectively. Not just the course fit but the form.
Justin Rose continues to get very little respect from the markets despite having a win and seven top-20s this year already
Check out all of my thoughts and bets so far in this week’s betting show with Ryan Noonan (he bet a handful of guys too).
If you want a closer look at the rest of my model for the week, a peek at Noonan’s or to build your own, the Custom Modeling Tool is updated and better than ever. If you’re not a Betsperts Golf member, as always, it’s just $20 a month
…and if you think Max has a good shot this week, it’s a good time to give the membership a shot. We’ll FULLY REFUND any and all new monthly memberships purchased before round 2 starts if Homa is crowned the U.S. Open Champion.
No House Advantage
Played some Pick ‘em DFS this week as well, mostly because I found lines for these guys’ round one scores on a sportsbook and they are all set at 68.5 (and aren’t available to use in parlays). New users to No House Advantage get a $100 Deposit Match Bonus, so, you can even get some free cash to play this with.
So here’s hoping the soft conditions we’ve heard about extend into at least round 1 before they crank up the pain and make the course impossible.
Join me if you like cheering against the course (at least for one day)
As I said, tons more tomorrow, including the most top 20, 30, and 40 bets I’ve made in quite some time. I will leave you with one tweet:
I still have no idea if the LIV will continue, if the deal falls through, and what golf looks like next year but lordy this is a quote from Jon Rahm.
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