The Wyndham Championship
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Last week before the playoffs! I will go on record and say that the playoffs aren’t really that cool and could for sure be improved, but it’s what we have and the purses will always keep the fields electric. It sucks that the whole world is ready to focus on football right as the PGA season builds to its supposed crescendo, but whatcha gonna do?
Regardless, I’ll do what I do every week. Read some previews, run some numbers and fire off some bets. Already put some cash on seven outrights I like and three full tournament matchups. You can check out everything myself, and the team bets every single week in the Betsperts Golf Discord. Up 45 units on the year myself, and looking for my first outright since Boston to drive that up towards 60.
It’s been a while since we’ve had a big number hit, but lordy if there were a tournament to do it at, maybe it’s here. It wasn’t too long ago that Jim Herman won as a 500/1 (or more) shot and really kept his shit together afterwards. (mostly just wanted to post this tweet)
I was going to run some numbers on who is on on the “bubble” for the FedEx playoffs next week, but had forgotten someone does it much better than I each year. So, from @PGATOURJack:
He also tweeted a reminder that this is the MINIMUM a golfer must acheive in order to have a shot. If multiple golfers all meet or exceed these finishing positions, they can still find themselves on the outside looking in since there are a finite amount of spots.
Still, maybe nice to know for some of the guys in that first column with lower bars to clear. Decent case to play safe, low-risk golf on the weekend if you’re Danny Willett sitting in 20th place. Maybe something to re-examine for round 3 and 4 matchup betting and showdown slates, as the inverse could be said about someone sitting on the outside looking in and the chances that they play high-risk, high-reward golf on Sunday to try to get some of that sweet, sweet FedEx money.
Sedgefield
Sedgefield Country Club is classified as a positional track that is slightly shorter than the average Tour course. It is a par-70 that measures out to 7,131 yards. With fairways that are heavily tree-lined, the course is routed over a rolling, wooded landscape. Just southeast of the center of Greensboro, it has a definite Carolina feel.
The course is a stock-par 70 with only two par-5s and four par-3s. Nine of the 12 par-4s are less than 445 yards and are a huge reason so many approach shots are with short irons and wedges. The two par-5s are each less than 550 yards and are the easiest group on Tour with a combined birdie or better rate of 59%,
The course features wall-to-wall Bermudagrass with average-sized greens that run between 12-12.5 on the stimp meter. The rough only measures 2.5 inches, but with Bermuda being the most unpredictable grass, even that length can be tricky to hit from.
Sedgefield definitely places a premium on positioning your ball on the proper side of the fairway and finding the best angle to attack the tricky green complexes…
Weather
No winds projected above 10 mph in the afternoons, rain in the evenings and an already easy course? 59 watch in play methinks.
Less of a morning wave advantage than we usually see looking possible, but it’s just been so many damn weeks of an AM guy taking FRL that I’m not willing to say that a slightly nicer afternoon forecast is going to stop that train. Same old-same old it seems, slight bump to the AM wave for showdowns, especially if we keep seeing overnight showers.
Free Betting Pick
Another week, another winner in the books. Little closer than I would have liked it but, bettors can’t be choosers. Another event that invites high variance this week makes matchups tough, and I don’t actually have that many that I’ve bet this week, furthering that point. I did end up continuing my begrudging fade of a player I used to love as he comes back off a long injury lay-off.
Aaron Rai > Harris English -105
Went 2-0 last week fading Harris in daily matchups with powerhouse names like David Lipsky and Tyler Duncan taking home the wins for me, and I don’t really have a reason to stop, especially with a guy I like quite a bit in Aaron Rai.
Middle of the pack off the tee as far as distance goes, but has been very accurate and in turn has found a very high amount of Greens in Regulation. A key every week, but at a low-scoring tournament as we have here, good tee shots leaving easy approaches will be vital with the Bermudagrass rough causing lots of issues over the years.
Willing to forgive some subpar results over in Scotland and perhaps even wonder if I’m benefitting from them as far as keeping this price down.
English has been a little unpredictable off the tee since returning from injury and outside of a 19th place finish at the Travelers, has been pretty horrid since he’s been back, missing 3/6 cuts and barely getting to the weekend at the U.S. Open before tail spinning with a 78-77 weekend. More than happy to take the Englishman at a dog price here.
DFS Value
Alex Smalley $7,500 (DK)
Smalley is a native to the North Carolina area and is a member at Sedgefield Country Club having played the course well over 100 times over the past couple of years. Usually, that is not a narrative I buy into, but this week is different. The correlation between course history and success is one of the highest on Tour at this course. To take it a step further, Smalley is one of the top-20 Tee to Green players in this field with six top-16s throughout the season and is really coming into his own. He is safely in next week's playoffs at 67th in the FedExCup standings and is playing without any pressure. His has one main weakness in his game - putting. But here is where the "course history" angle comes into play again. He knows these greens better than anyone. He knows where the best spots are to leave his ball on approach as well as the sloping on the greens. In his only appearance here back in 2019, he gained 4.3 strokes putting. At this price and with reasonable ownership, he is one of the best plays on the board.
The Pup Cup
Best Ball drafts are great, but if you like a quicker turnaround, Underdog has a pretty solid golf contest up right now for you: The Pup Cup.
$5 to enter, 150 entry limit per user
Either a 30 second or 4 hour per pick clock
6 users in the draft, 10 rounds
$20,000 to first place!
Just like NFL Best Ball: Top 6 golfers determine your score over the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs
Advance from a 6-person group to reach the second week, a 12-person group to reach the finals. 312 teams will reach the finals, advancing out of the first round guarantees you will cash. (full rules here)
Don’t have an account yet? Take advantage and get a $100 deposit match now! That’s 20 more Pup Cup teams!
Around the Twitter
Not sure what’s driving this: the threat of LLIV or the increased interst around the women’s tour. Hopefully both.
Up there with Matt Stafford and Clayton Kershaw going to the same high school, but it still needed to be said:
RIP to a legend. 100% worth taking the time to watch this when you get the time.
As always, best of luck with all your betting, DFS, One & Done, PrizePicks, Pup Cup and everything else this week! Be sure to check out all our free content on the YouTube page, and our two podcasts (Apple & Spotify). Excited to watch the Webb Simpson Open as golfers go low AF for the second straight week.