The Travelers Championship
Betting Picks, DFS Thoughts, Course Info, and More for the week in rainy Connecticut
I think the current news cycle and the speed at which it moves may have desensitized us as a whole. It feels like news items that would have eaten up months are forgotten in days now.
Two Weeks Ago: “This Saudi takeover of the PGA is the wildest news in the history of the sport, golf will never be the same and we’ll literally never get over this”
Monday: “The Travelers will mark the 12th elevated event of the season and again give us a top-end field in the week after a major, let’s take a look at the par-70 gem that is TPC River Highlands”
Truthfully, I’m more than happy to just focus on the golf being played. Not because I don’t care about the geopolitical ramifications of the “merger”, but because I don’t fully understand them and don’t have the time to figure them out.
So, until we know more (because anything I’ve tried to read about the legality of it all is clear as mud), I’ll stick with the crowd that has mostly forgotten about the “bombshell” in the wake of a couple of fun finishes in Canada and Cali.
In the spirit of that, let’s take a look at the par-70 gem that is TPC River Highlands, courtesy of Ron Klos’ weekly preview article:
TPC River Highlands
It is a par-70 course that is the 4th shortest on Tour at only 6,852 yards. Immaculately maintained, it has numerous subtleties which add to the strategy and challenge of the layout. The routing of the holes demands certain shot types and shapes. This type of course and design has allowed for a variety of champions over the years. Past winners include bombers and shorter fairway finders, Tour veterans and course “first-timers”, and even a blend of favorites and longshots. Any style of play can have success at TPC River Highlands and that is one of the reasons so many high-quality players return year after year.
The agronomy for this week features 4-plus inch Bluegrass/Fescue rough and a Bentgrass/Poa Annua mixture on the greens and fairways. Numerous lakes and ponds add to the course’s beauty although only five holes actually have water in play. In Pete Dye fashion, the course (mostly on the back nine) does entice players into taking shots over some of these water hazards. The penal rough stands out as the course’s best defense. Players who end up off the fairway and in trouble will be forced to layup instead of going for the green with their approach shot.
While TPC River Highlands does yield low winning scores (15-under par average the last 12 events) and birdies are there to be taken, it still presents numerous challenges and won’t give anything away. A perfect example of this occurred in 2018. In the first round, Jordan Spieth shot a 63 and then followed it up with a 73 the very next day. The average overall score for the last five events is only 0.62 shots under par which put it slightly on the tougher side for average Tour courses. But this is also the course where Jim Furyk shot a Tour record low 58 and Patrick Cantlay shot a 60.
Statshot
As we are looking at another elevated field, Ron took a look at who has been playing well in these strengthened fields compared to their two-year baseline. Obviously, Wyndham has been great relative to his past 24 months, but some other interesting names have overperformed their standards including the Rickie Renaissance.
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My Travelers Course Fit Model
Off the Tee and Good Drives Gained % given a little bump this week with positional golf being the name of the game. Supplemented approach numbers with overall proximity stats and some scoring as well. Elevated fields are going to have a lot of big names at the top but I still found a lot of the dark horses that everyone likes in the top 25 (Stevens, Cole, Eckroat).
Scottie, Rahm, Patrick, Xander, Tony, and Rory: Just really good at golf
Hovland’s improvements in the short game has him sliding up
Kevin Yu (actual name: Yu Chun-an) riding the wave of having a small sample on tour with some good finishes in the swing season + Pebble Beach
C.T. Pan: hot as fire in the VERY short-term form bucket after a middling spring with a couple of top 5s over the past month
Corey Conners: ball-striking legend with a win under his belt and a high ceiling when his putter isn’t letting him down.
Check it out on the site, build your own, and play with all the stats
Weather
Cromwell, CT ≠ Los Angeles.
The Bad: as we currently sit, we have over a 50% chance of some rain each day.
The Good: Today is the Summer Solstice in the northern hemisphere, meaning this is about as much sunlight as we’ll get for any tournament all year long, so if we have some scattered showers that take out part of a day, there is still plenty of daylight left to try and get all of the golf in.
More Bad: if we hit the worst-case scenario and push into Monday, the weather doesn’t appear to be improving at all. Decent chance of rain every single day next week as well.
No wave leans from me as the whole thing looks like a mess. My only real thought is that the course has no chance. Greens will be softer than a baby’s behind all week on a course that’s already given up a 58. Hopefully, they just let the rough keep growing.
Betting Picks
Decent week if not for the Dead-Heat rule I suppose. Cole got beat up on Sunday costing me a nice Top 30, but still won his matchup. Si Woo got chopped by half and Jason Day never really arrived in LA, but, we’ll always have the least sweaty top 20 of all time in Wyndham Clark +270. Here are a couple I’ve gravitated to so far this week:
My favorite Top 20:
Shane Lowry +230
Someone I’ve liked to bet over the years is finding form again, with top-20 finishes in all three majors so far this year. The short game has been a hindrance but is coming around. Lowry gained strokes on the field around the green and on the putting surface last week in LA and seems to have things sorted a bit. A leader in Good Drives Gained over the past 50 rounds, I like his game to find scoring opportunities here in Connecticut.
My favorite Matchup Bet:
Sam Stevens > Beau Hossler +100
I like Beau, I’ve bet on Beau, I just don’t think he should be a favorite in this matchup. Sam’s putting struggles shouldn’t drag him down as much this week and he’s clearly been the better ball-striker of the two. Long irons and proximity in general continue to impress and I really think we see Stevens in a position for many more scoring opportunities this week on a course that I think fits his game quite well.
I’d say you can find the rest of my picks in the Discord, but Ryan is the one who his the 120/1 last week while I cowardly played him to top 20 instead. You can check out all his betting content for free this week again right here:
Our Favorite DFS Play
Russell Henley 7.8k
TPC River Highlands shapes up to be perhaps the best course fit on the entire PGA Tour course rotation for Henley. Not only has he gained the 10th most strokes here out of any other player since 2015, but he ranks first in the entire field in Strokes Gained on similar short, positional courses. He has gained at least three strokes on Approach in six straight events, including a combined 13.5 at the U.S. Open and at the Memorial. He also has six top-20 finishes in his last seven events.
Check out the live show for all the DFS looks heading into this week:
Tweets
The worst-kept secret in golf is now not a secret. Riv will host a U.S. Open (in 8 years), which seems like a long time from now, but less so if I tell you we have Oakland Hills slated for the 2051 Open.
Still just wild that this cat only has two wins this year, shows how hard it is I guess.
Golf Digest asked this dumb question, which I am only posting to set up the next tweet…
Truly the best thread I’ve read this summer, and worth a few minutes of your time. Falls directly into “things I wish I had written”
Excited for the Ryder Cup like always, but also sorta depressed knowing that it’s essentially Fall in 100 days
As always, be good, have fun, bet responsibly, enjoy a Major-level field on a unique course, and be sure to check out all the rest of our content each and every week.
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