Finally.
Kicking off 2024 with the best of the best (unless you’re a LIV member or opting to play the DP Tour desert swing instead).
Still the rebranded “Tournament of Champions” is fun for a ton of reasons, the field being a ways down the list for me. Since it’s in Hawaii, this is afternoon/evening golf for a lot of us, and without Thursday Night Football, it’s a godsend. the earliest tee time for round one are 12:45 pm EST!
Now known as The Sentry, the field has been expanded to include the top 50 in last year’s FedEx Cup along with anyone else who won a tour event last season.
59 Golfers
No-Cut!
$20 million purse ($3.6 million winner’s share)
and finally, The Course:
The Plantation Course at Kapalua
Located on the north shore of the Hawaiian island of Maui, the Plantation Course at Kapalua is a unique Par 73 coastal parkland layout that measures 7,596 yards. It is the 12th-longest course in the annual Tour rotation and sits on a spacious tract of mountainous land. From the breathtaking views overlooking Honokahua Bay to the 500-foot elevation difference between its highest and lowest points, the course is a spectacularly scenic place to host a highly competitive event comprised of a majority of the world’s best golfers.
Due to several factors, Plantation has the well-deserved reputation of being one of the lower-scoring courses on Tour relative to par. Since beginning on Tour in 1999, the winning score is typically in the low-to-mid 20s under par. There have been outliers, of course, with Thomas (-14) and Smith’s (-34) victories being separated by 20 strokes. Over the past five years, it has ranked as the second-easiest course on Tour at -3.08. Last year’s tournament set the record at a whopping -4.08 under par. While there are plenty of birdie and eagle opportunities, the course still offers a few potential challenges including coastal winds, uneven lies, and expansive tiered greens.
Though it is a parkland course with plenty of trees, they don’t crowd the fairways. While there are no holes that bring any type of water danger into play, there are 93 bunkers (fourth-most on Tour) that litter the course. There are also a few canyons with heavy vegetation and penalty areas to contend with. But even more challenging to golfers this week is the ability to manage the factors mentioned above that could cause trouble – elevation changes, massive greens, and the strength of the wind….
(strongly encourage you to click the button, Ron’s preview is very solid)
One and Done
Splash is running a $50,000 guaranteed pot full season one and done that starts tomorrow! It’s only about half-full and pays the top 50, so a bit of a chance at getting in with some overlay and a nice spot. $100 entry, over $7,500 for first place
My Model
I did some light modeling for the Sentry using The Rabbit Hole to create a mixed-condition model to try and suss out some guys who had a nice course fit here.
I started with 25% SG: Total over the past year to just set a bit of an anchor to good overall golfers so that it wouldn’t spit back anything too wild. Added 30% approach stats, 15% chipping (50-100 yards out proximity), 15% putting on Bermuda, and 15% Birdies or Better %.
Most of the top players ended up on the front page, Scottie was drug down a bit by some putting. Poston and Henley are some interesting long shots to be sure.
Running a special for anyone looking to try out the modeling tool for $5!
Just deposit and play $5 on VividPicks and we’ll give you a FULL 2024 membership to Betsperts Golf for free! Just click on this giant box or HERE.
Weather
The rains look like they’ll hold off until next week and for the most part, the winds seem to be moderate considering the location of the course.
The temps are very solid, as I write this from Minnesota. With Friday afternoon seeing the possibility of some heavier gusts, I suppose there’s a slight lean to the PM/AM wave, but not a ton.
My Favorite Bet
Eric Cole > Denny McCarthy -106
I do like backing McCarthy here and there when his putting skills can shine, but in this case, I just don’t see him getting enough out of his irons to take advantage.
With driving distance and accuracy down-weighted here, I will take the better approach player (who’s also not that bad of a putter himself). A much smaller sample of golf for Cole, but his ascension over the summer and superlative swing season results have me backing him here as a small underdog.
More thoughts on the tournament and how to bet it:
DFS Value
Collin Morikawa $9,100
Through three rounds at Kapalua last year, Morikawa had this tournament in the bag. It seemed that the only item in doubt was how many strokes he would win by. He was dominant and in control of every club in his bag until he had one of the biggest final-round collapses in PGA Tour history, losing to eventual champion, Jon Rahm, by two strokes.
There is a reason, however, for why he had such a huge lead and why he has never finished worse than seventh in his four career starts here. On a course where pinpoint approach play on massive undulating greens is one of the few "separators", whether with his wedges or long-irons from 200+ yards, Morikawa is the best in the field. He has proven to be a much better putter on the slower greens he will see this week. And with Rahm's win potential removed from the equation, he has a great chance to be in a position to rebound with a victory this year.
News and Notes
Congrats to Scottie and Eric!
Masters Invite photos get me going every time, but also a good reminder to start handicapping the amateurs that will be participating this year for the Low Am market.
I’m trash at golf, but this still caught my eye. If you have a simulator at home or have a place you play regularly, you can enter some sort of internet tournament! I’d watch some sort of tournament of champions for this.
As always, be good, have fun, bet responsibly, and let’s start the year out right!
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