Location & Dates: Torrey Pines Golf Course (South & North), La Jolla, California. Wednesday, January 24th - Saturday, January 27th, 2024.
One round is played on the North Course, and three on the South Course.
Only South Course is equipped with ShotLink data.
Soft course conditions due to recent rain.
This event is the last chance to qualify for next week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM.
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On to the course:
Torrey Pines South Course
Enormous length, narrow fairways, deep rough, criminally tough greens on which to putt. These are just a few of the ways to describe the South Course. While mostly flat, at 7,765 yards, Torrey Pines is a monster and the longest on Tour. Winds off the coast can also severely hamper a round. Xander Schauffele commented about both of these factors. “It’s brutal. It’s mentally exhausting. The place is a hike. Just everything about it. When the wind picks up, you’re just worn out at the end of the day.”
Over the past five years, it’s also played as the seventh-toughest course at 0.72 strokes over par. Almost every metric is more difficult than average here. From scrambling to fairways hit to GIR % – all are significantly lower here than the average PGA Tour course.
From an agronomy standpoint, greens are Poa annua. Fairways and rough are a ryegrass overseed. Torrey Pines is infamous for its thick penal rough. This year, the rough is a half-inch longer (four inches) to start the tournament than in years past. As for how firm the course typically plays, Scott Bentley, the Deputy Director Golf Division for San Diego remarked, “For the tournament, our goal is to really have dry conditions. We like the fairways to be firm and fast, and we like to see a bounce in the greens. We do expect the rough to be long and lush.”
One And Done Pool Pick Analysis:
Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 24-27)
Courtesy of PoolGenius
Jason Day could be a popular pick this week, and for good reason. Day loves playing at Torrey Pines. He has won the Farmers Insurance Open twice in his career (2015 and 2018), and in the five tournaments played there since his last win, has averaged +2.1 strokes gained per round. He has been three strokes gained or better in eight of his last 18 rounds at Torrey Pines.
You can see all that data and more in our Golf One And Done Picks product. We also just released a Pick Saving feature, where you can now save the golfers you have used in past tournaments. That info then factors into the grade assigned to your remaining available golfers for the upcoming tournament. Check it out when you sign up for our free trial.
My “Model”
This is a bit of a challenge to find a “course fit” this week. While 75% of the rounds are played on the tougher South Course, you still need golfers who can play well on both the North and South in order to make it to the weekend.
Still, I ended up mostly choosing stats that fit the tougher course with some consideration of skills that overlap a bit. Some stats I used this week:
Driving Distance: bombing will be advantageous on the long South Course
Putting on Poa: After coming off the dormant Bermuda, I want golfers who have had success on this surface.
Approach: even with nice tee shots, the 2nd shots will be long and tricky at times
Greens in Regulation % on Long Courses: GIR% tends to be lower here overall, this overlaps a bit with Approach, but I wanted to find guys with accuracy from further out
Scrambling %: Par saves will be massive for misses
Check out the rest of my ratings or build your own model
Betting
Well, well, well. If it isn’t me getting cocky right before a downturn in results. Another week, but this time a double-dip on the winners.
Year to Date Newsletter Picks: 4-0 (+4.03u) Alex Noren and Mark Hubbard made it through the 54-hole cut while Shane Lowry and Lee Hodges (respectively) did not. Cashed em both early while watching the Packers/49ers.
One for this week I like a bit. Going with a dog price while I’m hot.
Ludvig Aberg > Sungjae Im +108 (DraftKings/BOL)
This was a tougher one to look at objectively due to the smaller sample of golf for the Swede. I don’t think his driving distance is going to disappear suddenly, and his GIR% and overall play are high enough here that I like him at this price considering Sungjae is closer to the middle of the pack here in driving distance, club head speed, and carry distance. Im has putted well on the Poa, but his scrambling and green-finding on similar courses aren’t great.
DFS Value
Will Zalatoris $8,000
This is a huge "course fit" week. If you are not either an excellent long iron player/bomber off the tee or have an elite short game (especially on Poa greens), it is very easy to cross tons of names off the "playable" list. Zalatoris definitely fits the former as he has plenty of distance and, long term, is one of the best long-iron players in this field. He looked much better last week, gaining tee-to-green, at the AMEX than he did the week before. He also has two T7s here and is great value at this salary if the old Willy Z is fully back.
-Ron Klos (@PGASplits101)
Weather
A little colder than I’d want it to be if I were heading to California, but still nice enough considering we’re right smack dab on the coastline.
Some winds, but nothing kicking up too much, especially for the first two days. It has been raining though. Course conditions will likely be soft for at least the first part of the tournament.
Again, no wave advantage since there aren’t really waves with the two courses in play.
News and Tweets
As most already know, Nick Dunlap is taking the week off to soak it all in after his historic win at the Amex. Now the speculation turns to when he will turn pro and start to earn some of that sweet, sweet PGA money. He would need to turn pro to get into next week’s event since it’s a Signature.
Congrats to Rory and Jesus look at the size of this damn trophy. When he finally makes the jump across the pond to join the tour for the year has varied, but according to his website, we should see him next week up at Pebble.
Obligatory LIV news, just because.
As always, be good, have fun, bet responsibly, and enjoy the THURSDAY cut sweats and SATURDAY finish.
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