Was looking to condense some notes for next year so I ran Ron’s article through some AI, and honestly, it didn’t do too bad of a job when I prompted it to make some bullet points. Might just let the damn machine write the whole newsletter next week:
Key Points
Tournament: The American Express at PGA West
Dates: January 18-21, 2024
Location: La Quinta, California
Courses: Pete Dye Stadium Course (twice), Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
Format: Pro-Am for the first three rounds, cut after 54 holes, final round on Stadium Course
Field: Strongest ever, including 10 of the top 25 and 22 of the top 50 ranked players in the world.
A final thing I like to do each time we have a multi-course rotation is to figure out where people are playing all three days. Sometimes a nice little extra push for someone you may be live betting to win the tourney.
Let’s take a gander at the course the winner will be playing twice:
The Stadium Course
Designed in 1986 by legendary architect Pete Dye, The Stadium Course is clearly the toughest of the three courses and will be played by golfers twice this week. Mirrored after TPC Sawgrass, it has seven holes with water directly in play, including its very own Par-3, 17th-hole island green. It is a definite “risk-reward” type of course that will yield a ton of birdies but also some “blow-up” rounds as well.
The course is known for Dye’s memorable finishing stretch of holes, numbers 16-18. He called these final three holes “maybe the most difficult finishing holes I’ve ever built.” Included is the infamous “San Andreas” hole (#16) which has a greenside bunker over 20 feet deep that runs at least 50 yards up the left side of the green.
At only 7,187 yards, the Stadium Course is the 10th shortest on Tour. Two of the par-5s stretch out beyond 590 yards, but other than that, Tour players have the length to overpower the forced carries as well as many of the shorter holes on the course such as the four par-4s that are each less than 390 yards.
Success can be had by bombing it off the tee, but if golfers do not miss in the right spot, water and sand lurk everywhere. Stadium Club averages the ninth most penalties off the tee out of all the Tour courses played since 2015. The Driving Accuracy rate of 63% is only slightly easier than the Tour average. Players will need to be cautious on numerous holes and lay back off the tee to avoid danger.
Along with the very difficult bunkers that surround the small greens and some fairways, the challenging Par-5s are also one of the course’s biggest areas of defense. Players “Going for the Green” on their second shot are often met with trouble if not long enough off the tee and super accurate on approach. While distance is an advantage on this course, players will need to use good judgment.
One and Done Pick Analysis
Courtesy of PoolGenius
Scottie Scheffler, our top-ranked golfer, is playing in the American Express this week. Scheffler will probably only play in a handful of the non-Signature events with lower prize purses, but the start of the “West Coast Swing” near Palm Springs is one of them.
You should resist the temptation to use him as your One And Done pick this week. The AmEx has a total purse of just $8.4 million, ranking only 25th out of all tournaments played between the start of January and the BMW Championship in August.
At most, Scheffler can win just over $1.5 million this week for you if he finishes first. Better to save him for an event where he could win at least $3.6 million for first, and still get over $2 million if he finishes second. The same logic applies to Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay, both in the top six of our golfer rankings.
In our Golf One And Done Picks product, we just released a new Pick Grade feature that highlights the most compelling golfers to consider for the American Express, factoring in both win odds and future pick value. Check it out when you sign up for our free trial.
Model
We made a similar model live on the betting show/podcast yesterday, but this was the mix of stats I landed on for my “Course Fit Ratings” this week.
As always, anchored with a little SG: TOT to keep it from getting too weird
Birdie of Better %
SG: Approach
Par 5 Average
Greens in Regulation %
SG: Putting (on West Coast Courses with Easy Scoring Conditions)
You can check out the whole thing, look at Ron and Ryan’s, or build your own over at the site.
Find out how to get year-long access for just $5!
Betting Pick(s)
Tracking: 2-0 (+2.03u) for the calendar year after backing Benny An last week over Si Woo. Undefeated and willing to give it all back today with a bonus matchup for the folks. A couple of 72-hole matchup bets:
Alex Noren > Shane Lowry -115 ( FanDuel)
Shane has been playing well over on the DP Tour, while Noren found some nice results during the swing season. This is just another one where splits looking at “playing in easy scoring conditions” all tilt heavily toward the Swede. Over the past two years, Noren has gained strokes in over 63% of rounds in those conditions. Lowry just 50%.
Mark Hubbard > Lee Hodges -115 (SouthPoint/MGM Vegas/Offshore)
Hubbard was a guy I liked a bit this week as a sneaky top 40 pick and have him miles better in most of the stats I used for course fit here, especially the scoring stats like Birdies or Better and Putting on this dormant Bermuda.
Weather - La Quinta, CA
Looks pretty nice outside of some chillier (relative) temps in the mornings. 25% chance of some rain on Sunday, but not much in the way of winds.
With tee times only being spread out across a few hours, not really looking at “wave advantages” this week.
DFS
Ron likes a golfer near the top to start your lineups with this week:
Sungjae Im $10,100
In his five trips to Palm Springs, Im has finished 18th, 11th, 12th, 10th, and 12th. He thrives in the calm "dome-like" weather conditions he will see this week and he has the scoring firepower (BoB rate, Par 5 Scoring, etc) to keep pace in the birdie-fest that will ensue.
Ron and Byron will go live this afternoon over on the BetSperts YouTube channel to answer any DFS questions you have and talk through their builds this week.
Tweets and News
We do this every year, but I’m always going to watch this video because it’s sadistic considering how easy the overall golf is across the courses this week.
Can’t go a week without some LIV/PIF drama. This time it’s a bit more sinister than usual.
Another video that I will 100% sit and watch in its entirety. I’m pushing 40 so I grew up on Duval.
One bonus prediction: Tom Kite WILL NOT win the Amex.
Finally, I’m not sure why this is never brought up when they talk about rolling the ball back. Drivers didn’t used to be the size of a toilet seat.
As always, be good, have fun, bet responsibly, and let’s get through these silly three-course events. We’re so close to the WMPO.
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