RSM Classic
Last chance to bet PGA golf for a spell, courtesy of the Sea Island Mafia
Will keep this one short and sweet, but please remember that as we run out of daylight, we turn to the only thing that lets us get a full 18-hole round in for 150+ guys: playing on two different courses.
This week will indeed feature two different golf courses, each golfer will play one on Thursday and switch for Friday before we cut the field down and everyone left just plays the par-70 course twice more for the weekend.
Con: lack of shotlink data for some early rounds that will be hard to find broadcasts for anyways
Pro: Most books will offer first-round leader markets for each course, which means more darts to be thrown and sweated out on Thursday afternoon. (like this degen⬇)
Twice the courses, twice the preview. Let’s dig in quick:
Seaside Course
The main course at the RSM Classic that will host three rounds this week is the Seaside course. It is a par-70, 7,005-yard course that meanders along the coastal marshlands of St. Simons Sound. It ranks as the 10th shortest course on Tour and mitigates any distance advantage that some players have on longer tracks.
It was created as a links-style course surrounded by tidal creeks, man-made sand dunes, elevation changes, and the Atlantic Ocean. While it does help to use the ground game when winds increase, it does not play anything close to a true-links course. It features the fourth widest fairways and the seventh largest greens on Tour.
Seaside has played a quarter of a shot tougher than the Plantation course mostly due to its 13 holes with water danger and its location off the coast which makes it vulnerable to the wind. Players will see the same type of greens on both courses with Bermuda being the main surface. The course usually plays quite soft this time of year and was overseeded back in October. The fairways on both courses are ryegrass, while Seaside is listed as having overseeded rye for rough this year, perhaps due to the cooler conditions.
Even with only two par-5s on the Seaside course, they must be taken advantage of as they are two of the easiest scoring opportunities. It does feature four somewhat challenging par-3s that measure between 175-225 yards and includes two of the most difficult holes on the course. But ultimately, performance on the 12 par-4s will determine who contends on the leaderboard. These holes include five of the seven toughest on the course, each of which plays over par. Seven of the par-4s play under 420 yards which is one of the reasons nearly 67% of approach shots come from under 175 yards.
Plantation Course
Compared to Seaside, Plantation is more of a tree-lined parkland course and is much less exposed to the coastal winds. Players have remarked that it has a definite “Carolina” feel to it and have compared it to Harbour Town. It features 1.5″ Bermuda grass rough and greens that will roll between 11-12 on the stimp meter. Ever since it was renovated by Davis Love III back in 2019, it has drawn rave reviews from players. and requires much more thoughtfulness and creativity than before.
Plantation also boasts wide fairways, and at only 7,060 yards is the sixth shortest course on Tour. While the course does play easier overall compared to Seaside, it has gotten tougher since the renovation. Tidal creeks and lakes are in play on 10 different holes. While it does have four reachable par 5s, the par-72 course has much more difficult green complexes that have distinct quadrants with much more undulation than it did previously.
Odds
The field gets a little rough after the first 20 guys or so, but there are some nice names here, including Ryder Cupper Ludvig Aberg.
Noonan’s Model
Went through it on the show a bit, and of course, it’s just a starting point when you want to look at who fits the narrative for this course. Ryan used the tool on the site to but together a weighted model with some stats he thinks will come into play looking at the RSM this week.
Long term Tee-to-Green
Short-term approach play
Overall Par 4 efficiency
Par 4 Birdies or Better
Last 36 Round Form (SG: TOTAL)
You can check out his model each week and make your own over at Betsperts Golf of course. Full-year subs are 25% off for the holiday season, Christmas shopping just got that much easier.
Bets
Just outright darts again for this time of the year, I had four I decided on during the podcast recording, and one my good friend Link Calhoun talked me into this afternoon.
Eric Cole +2500
Denny McCarthy +3300
Taylor Pendrith +4500
Chesson Hadley +7500
Vincent Whaley +13100
Weather
It’s November, but it’s November in Georgia, so still pretty nice temp-wise. The winds off the water may be kicking up all week, but also remember that the Plantation course is much more protected from the coastal weather.
Looks pretty rainy tomorrow, but we’ll see if we actually get delays or hear the horn at all. Hard to call a wave advantage with the split course tee times and uncertainty.
Tweets
I’ll have some sort of 2024 predictions piece up in December, but I’ll get to one early: I hate Rory’s guts and wish him nothing but misfortune. I still think he will win a major this upcoming year. Minus the distractions that being on the board and with how close he came last year, I think he will break the near decade-long streak.
After having surgery to remove a lesion on his brain, Gary Woodland is back. Good to see.
no context needed. Just a solid graphic by Ball State.
Next Week: the first in a four-part series taking a look at next year’s majors 👀
As always, be good, have fun, bet responsibly, and soak this one in, it’ll be a while.
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