Charles Schwab Challenge
Back to Texas for Jordan vs the field
Another week similar to the Wells Fargo, where the course didn’t look that tough at first and we end up with some carnage eventually. I like Mito, I feel bad for Mito but, in the end, our team didn’t have any Mito outright tickets.
We did, on the other hand, have some Justin Thomas tickets.
BIG WEEK!
Great to see another outright for the squad, that’s two in three weeks. Hope to keep it rolling and reward some of the folks who signed up for early access and have reaped the benefits these past few weeks.
If you’re not already a member, we’re STILL holding the price down at $99.99 for the summer while we finish up the addition of a few more tools to the site.
But, enough about how smart Ron & Ryan are, let’s dig into the Charles Schwab.
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club is a par 70 course that measures 7,209 yards. It is an average-length classical course that has tree-lined fairways, numerous doglegs, and small green complexes. Cut through pecan, walnut, and oak trees, the course features very little sloping and elevation changes. Similar to a Donald Ross design, the routing of the course is very creative as players will tee off in a different direction after each hole. When the Texas winds start to blow, this can cause some challenging decisions on tee shots.
Overall, the course provides a good mix of difficult holes and birdie opportunities. Being a par-70 track, the 12 par-4 holes rule the day at Colonial. Five of them are between the 350-410 yard range while four others are between 410-450 yards. The four par-3 are each over 190 yards and rate among the toughest on Tour.
Most players will get off to a good start as the first hole is a 565-yard par-5 which is the easiest hole on the course. It is easy to reach in two shots and has a birdie or better rate at 47%. The second par-5 (hole 11) is far from easy as it’s a 635-yard beast that is difficult to reach in two and has a much smaller 29% birdie or better rate.
The most famous section of the course is holes 3-5 which is known as the “Horrible Horseshoe”. They are the three toughest holes mentally and scoring-wise. Since 2003, they are the second most difficult three-hole stretch on Tour and play a combined 0.48 shots over par….
-Ron Klos (PGASplits101)
Our Projections
Plenty can happen with 72 holes over four days, but our current projections see the most likely outcome is JT going back-to-back. Definitely some surprises in the top-20, be sure to check out Sam’s article to see them all, along with some nuggets on the why, and head to the full tournament projections on the site to see the entire field.
Weather
Still in the area of the country where the winds could kick up at any time, and as of right now it looks like the weekend may deliver some gusts from the Gods.
Probably a bit of a wave advantage for the AM/PM group with Thursday afternoon looking to be the worst of it over the first two days, but more than likely the difference is negligible and it turns into a nothing-burger. Almost always a bit of a bump for the AM guys in showdown, but looks like that advantage may be much more pronounced come Saturday.
Free Betting Pick
We got another newsletter winner last week with Matt Jones missing the cut!
This was nice because Sepp Straka absolutely bottled the weekend and finished dead last of those making it through to Saturday. So for those keeping track, Straka’s +18 beats Jones’ +10 (MC) and we’re on to Colonial. Veering away from matchups for a week, but only because I found a positional bet I like enough.
Sebastian Munoz top 40 +110 (DraftKings)
Liked it enough (among some other rogue lines) that I drove to a gas station just on the other side of the Minnesota/Iowa border to get down on it on a Tuesday afternoon.
I ran a few different sets of data this week: course fit, current form, and a “target golf” model where I look for players who can get from point A to B to C and create scoring chances and I’ll be damned if Seabass wasn’t near the top again. In his nine events this calendar year, he’s been inside the top 40 seven times, with a MC back in January and a 55th last week at Southern Hills. When either the course or the field (or both) are easier than average, expect Munoz to compete. Getting his Tee-to-Green play at over even money to top 40 feels like something that’s off by 10-15% and I threw a full unit on it.
I also played a handful of outrights as well as some other positional bets already over in the Discord. Head over to Betspertsgolf.com to gain access to the members-only section.
-Andy
DFS Value
Patrick Reed $7,400 (DraftKings)
So hear me out now. Reed gained 5.2 strokes on approach and finished 34th at last week’s PGA Championship. It was the first time he gained more than two strokes on approach in the last 11 months. He has also made four of his last five cuts overall. Looking at Colonial CC history, he has two T15s in his last three trips, including a 7th in 2020. He also has the third-most birdies or better per round and the fourth-best scoring average at Colonial out of anyone on Tour since 2015. At this cheap a price, anything he does better than a top-40 finish would be a bonus.
-Ron Klos (PGASplits101)
Free Betting Content - Every Week
A lot of the written work and the tools are behind a paywall but, every single week we put out at least two live streams (also available as podcasts) going over some of our favorite betting and DFS angles for the week. So, find us on our YouTube channel, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or where ever else you listen.
Prize Picks Play
Bryson withdrew, which sucks because he was looking like an easy fade this week, but Ryan still has a few guys he’s targeting to miss greens and fairways in his PrizePicks entries for the Chuck Schwab. He’ll have plays all weekend if you’re not sure what to do and need someone to tail. Don’t have an account yet? Grab one here and take advantage of the free 100% deposit match, up to $100: SIGN UP
Around the Twitter
Thomas now heads into a small group of men who have EVER won more than one major. Every win after this just starts cutting the list of peers damn near in half.
Bit of a thread, so make sure to go get your bets for the week in first but, it’s wild to read about just how shitty golf balls were not that long ago.
It honestly sucks that Charlie Hoffman is in such poor form right now. Can you imagine him chirping brodies and whipping shitties in the Colonial CC parking lot with this beast?
As always, best of luck with your betting, DFS, one & done, and life in general. If you have questions, comments, concerns, or a hot betting tip, you can reply directly to this email. See you next week.