AT&T Byron Nelson Betting & DFS
The K.H. Lee invitational sets the table for next weeks' major. Betting, Weather, News, Notes, Thoughts, & My Favorite Top 20 Bet of the Week.
First off: Congrats to Ron for not only picking a winner last week but picking off a horrible opening number right away on Monday. Pretty good advice in the tweet as well.
The one thing that’s been the most noticeable about the new “landscape” of pro golf has definitely been the low spots outside of designated events. While not great, last year's field did find some decent names with the PGA Championship just up the road in Tulsa. This year we’ve had a handful of WDs watering things down a bit, but still stronger than in years past for sure. It is bit top-heavy, which is how you get Scottie Scheffler listed at +350 to win this thing.
Having a back-to-back champion like we have had here in K.H. Lee does happen from time to time on the Tour, but is a little wild considering the event. An absolute muni-level TPC course that gives up super low rounds leads to more variance and should negate course history mattering, but here we are.
On top of it all, I had hoped to just avoid the back-to-back champ as he will certainly be overpriced in the betting markets this week but, I tend to lean on form more than anything in events like these and he’s been playing great! It’s been over a decade since a guy threepeated (Steve Stricker, John Deere Classic 2009-11) and it doesn’t seem likely, but if you made me make a list of ten guys I thought most likely to win independent of price, he’d be on it.
So, as always, let’s take a look at the course I just insulted, via Ron’s preview article:
TPC Craig Ranch
Featuring gently rolling hills, mature woods, and the ever-present Rowlett Creek which crisscrosses the course 14 different times, TPC Craig Ranch is a par 71 course that can be stretched out to 7,414 from the championship tees. This is a change from the scorecard of the first two years when it played as a par 72 course. Attempting to make the course less scoreable, the 12th hole was shortened from 547 yards to 493 yards and will play as a par 4 instead of a par 5. It’s a track where length off the tee certainly helps as it ranks as the 11th longest course on Tour.
Designed by Tom Weiskopf in 2004, it has sprawling fairways (8th widest on Tour), few hazards, and larger than average flat greens. The first two events at TPC Craig Ranch have been the definition of a birdie-fest. Longshot, K.H. Lee bettered his 25-under winning score from 2021 with a 26-under mark in last year’s title defense. Overall, the course has played as the third easiest on Tour at 2.61 strokes under par. It put up such little defense that only five holes average over par, and it finished with the highest birdie-to-bogey ratio at 2.20. All in all, it is a scorer’s paradise that will come down to ball striking and a putting contest on the greens.
As far as defense, the course puts up very little resistance in any area. While Rowlett Creek is present on many holes it does not actually threaten players in most instances unless they spray their tee shot. The only other real threat to tamper scoring would be the gusty winds that courses in Texas have a reputation for. Looking at the weather forecast, heavy rains are supposed to pound the area on Wednesday which will only soften the greens and allow for target practice on approach. As of now, winds are supposed to gust between 15-25 mph on each day of the tournament. That might be the only chance of keeping the winning score below 25-under again…
Stats That Matter
Stolen verbatim from Ron’s Twitter:
“Typically, easy-scoring courses (such as TPC Craig Ranch) that pose little threat off the tee are transformed into target practice on approach, followed by a putting contest. Here are the best players in the #ATTByronNelson field over the last 3 months when combining SG: Approach and SG: Putting.”
Stadium Hole!
I dogged on the course and will continue to do so when the first-round leader is -11, but I do respect any course willing to cater to the fans. It ain’t Phoenix, but I love to see a stadium hole. While there are suites that likely cost a bit more than general admission passed located up and down the 17th, all of the grandstands are accessible to anyone.
Maybe the future as the tour(s) try to appeal to the masses? A few weeks back at LIV Adelaide, we saw the 12th hole with wraparound bleachers and heavy drinking/yelling from the Aussie crowds.
Betting Tip of the Week
Three in a row equals a hot streak with Rickie coming through in the clutch despite me not betting on him for a very, very long time. Top 20 +160 was nice way to cap off a profitable week. Getting a little spicier this week and pushing my luck a bit with the 2009 & 2010 Minnesota State Amateur Champion:
Tom Hoge Top 20 +210 (FanDuel)
Tommy Tables came in highly ranked in all three models I ran this week: Rolling Form, Spike Scoring Potential, and Course Fit. Great irons, good putting, the ability to get hot, and again: great irons and good putting.
In this field, on this course, if a guy can play target practice from the fairways and putt well enough on the bentgrass, he’ll be near the top of the leaderboard this weekend.
If you feel like playing around with some modeling for this week or any of the upcoming tournaments, by all means, check out the new tool on the site. Build custom models, save ‘em, change ‘em, download the outputs as CSVs, the whole megillah.
Weather
The course’s only defense: The Texas winds.
I hate guessing at this sort of thing, but since it’s all we can do at this point, it would not surprise me to see a full stroke difference between AM/PM on Thursday with the soft morning conditions and the chance of heavy gusts in the afternoon. With the course giving up low scores all week, anyone could spike a nice round, but more than likely, the first-round leader is someone that’s in early. As someone who needs gambling sweats to get my heart rate going, this is the only way I’d have it. Nothing like having a leader in the clubhouse at noon and sweating the 70 golfers who haven’t hit a ball yet.
As for the weekend, it might be a bit of a mess as well, with storms predicted. Hopefully, we can work around that with the smaller post-cut field, but more moisture is just going to add to the target practice these greens will be enduring. Still looks like we’re getting -24 or better come Sunday.
Tweets
A “boots on the ground” review of next week’s venue I found on Twitter. I have no idea as to the accuracy of this tweet, I really hope it’s correct (plus he seems like a nice guy). I don’t want to see it 40 weeks a year but, I do enjoy my majors being extremely difficult.
I hadn’t thought about this guy for a long time, and will keep an eye out for him.
Spieth withdrawal update. Hate this if he’s not 100% for next week.
No idea what to make of this but hope John Williams is involved.
and finally, the answer to “what if we actually do a bunch of no-cut, small field events next year?” More alt events run the same week so that the rest of the tour can play some golf.
Good week to get in the discord, not only for the Byron Nelson bets, but we’re already firing away on outrights for Oak Hill next week.
As always, be good, have fun, bet responsibly, save some bankroll for next week, and be sure to check out all the rest of our content each and every week.
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