Mexico Open Betting & DFS
Rahm, Tony and everyone who didn't take the week off head to Mexico for the 2nd annual Open
Let’s start our look at the Mexico Open with a quick lesson in Spanish via a #GolfTwitter mainstay:
It’s a longggg course with wide fairways and short rough. Hell, I might break 80 here (if I skipped the par 5s). The joke about this one is “What should I parlay Rahm with?” Not that far off base honestly, maybe pick a couple NBA or NHL series prices and Bryce Young to go first overall to get him to like 10/1, otherwise good luck, have fun.
Vidanta Vallarta
We’ve only had one year of history of this tourney, but the course has been around and we got a pretty good look at it last year. Here’s the short version, via Ron:
Vidanta Vallarta is a par-71 course that measures out to 7,456 yards. It ranks as the 6th longest course on Tour. It is a unique track that has five par-3s to go with four par-5s and only nine par-4s. Unlike most resort courses, last year’s tournament did not result in a birdie-fest. In fact, it ranked in the middle of the pack for scoring difficulty
Along with its monstrous length, the coastal winds appear to be one of the course’s most prominent defenses. With the Pacific coast just down the road, crosswinds are known to impact the course starting around 11 am on most days. Jon Rahm had this to say about the effects of the wind last year: “There’s a big difference between morning and afternoon. We had no wind for 13, 14 holes, and it was very scorable. Once the wind starts going 20-30 miles an hour, this golf course starts showing some teeth. It’s long. You have a couple really long par 4s. 4 and 8 are straight into the wind. Both of them 500 yards. So you can start seeing higher scores out there.” There are also 12 holes with water danger, 106 bunkers, numerous large sandy waste areas, and patches of indigenous vegetation that can also cause trouble.
The course features wall-to-wall Paspalum grass surfaces. Paspalum is a very common grass used on coastal courses and is known for its “stickiness”. This means that drives will not roll out as much on the fairways and will stop much quicker on the greens. The rough here is quite short and non-penal at only 1.5″. Greens should run between 10.5-11.5 which is in the slow-to-average range on the stimpmeter.
Digging into Stats
Bombers course: sure, but also worth looking at Carry Distance this week as Ron pointed out on Twitter the other day. The sticky Paspalum will grab at the golf ball a bit and prevent too much rollout even if the fairways are firm.
Take a look at this and dozens of other granular stats on our Custom Model Builder over on the site. Monthly Subs are STILL $20, you get to try out the fun new tool and it takes you through the next major, as well as the Wells Fargo and Byron Nelson.
DFS Value Play
Joseph Bramlett $7.8K
Bramlett was the biggest surprise when running my weekly model as he finished 7th overall. While he has always been long off the tee, his approach game has improved so much that he enters the week as the 5th best ball-striker (combination of OTT and APP) in the field. Over his last 11 events, he has gained on approach in eight of them. He is also one of the best long-iron and par-5 scorers in the field. Recently on similar courses, he has a 13th place finish at the Farmers and a 9th at the Houston Open.
Check out Ron’s Entire DFS Thoughts for the Week
Got even more questions about your builds for Mexico? Check out the Weekly Livestream or GET IN THE DISCORD AND ASK RON YOURSELF!
Betting Pick of the Week (1-0 last week)
Finally got hot last week, but almost too hot. Was nice not to have to sweat the top 20 bet on Hadwin and Taylor, but I DID NOT HAVE AN OUTRIGHT on them. That was a little tilting as they were sitting in first place on Sunday afternoon. Luckily the FOMO was cured via Davis Riley and Nick Hardy taking the event down, but still leaving our Canadians with a winning bet.
Sticking in the positional bets this week with the high-variance course.
Beau Hossler Top 30 +100 DraftKings
Above average driver of the ball with some nice short game. Not going after the usual suspects this week (approach kings) and looking for guys who can take advantage of an easy course with nice long drives and hopefully, some spike putting. Beau is in the top 20 or so in Birdies or Better gained, Eagles gained and Bogeys avoided ove the past 50 rounds. Love his price here and think he can comfortably nestle himself just outside the first page of the leaderboard and cash this for me.
Went over my outrights and Top 20 Bets with Noonan Tuesday morning.
Weather
It’s a resort, folks. Nice coastal weather with winds that apparently are on the same schedule as the guards at Buckingham Palace. I read a quote that the “winds just kick up every afternoon” but looking at this chart is pretty comical.
No wave advantage I suppose, everyone will get some of the afternoon winds. Don’t think we see carnage at any point though. The fairways and greens are spacious, and it’s not like we’re getting a typhoon.
News
First a look at all the other tours cranking out golf all year. Not 100% sure what this means, but Latin America and Canada are joining forces to create a Super Tour for guys trying to work their way up to the KFT.
Speaking of KFT, it’s worth your time to go watch this putt (and interview). Great to see a grinder like Scott get a big win.
Meanwhile, the DP Tour easily one-upped green jackets, tartan jackets and whatever else you can win over her with this get up on Lucas Herbert.
Speaking of the DP, Dick Bland and Eddie P are filling in the time and “feud content” while the PGA and LIV are in a period of getting along.
And, just because I tried to get CFA like 10 out of the 18 NFL Sundays last year while heading to the office…
As always, be good, have fun, bet responsibly, and be sure to check out all the rest of our content each and every week.
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